บทวิเคราะห์ (Research)

We have a negative view on BCP's 2Q24 net profit of THB 1.82 bn (+298% y-y, -25% q-q), below our expectations due to higher-than-anticipated exploration expenses from OKEA. The q-q profit decline was attributed to refinery maintenance and lower refining margins from decreased supply tightness, while OKEA's business saw reduced sales volume due to well maintenance. We expect a q-q profit recovery in 3Q24F as the Phra Khanong refinery exits maintenance and OKEA reduces well maintenance. We have revised down our 2024-26F profit forecasts following adjustments to BSRC's profit estimates and rolled over to a TP25F of THB49.0. We reiterate a Buy rating, suggesting gradual accumulation to capture the recovery in 3Q-4Q24F and long-term profits exceeding pre-COVID levels.