บทวิเคราะห์ (Research)

We expect soft earnings for Thai banks in 2Q25F, driven by loan growth contraction and NIM pressure, which should weigh on NII, along with weaker investment gains QoQ. Siam Commercial Bank (SCB.BK/SCB TB)* and Kiatnakin Phatra Bank (KKP.BK/KKP TB)* should report strong earnings growth due to low bases in 2Q24. Kasikornbank (KBANK.BK/KBANK TB)* is likely to benefit from lower credit costs, while investment gains should support Bangkok Bank (BBL.BK/BBL TB)*. In contrast, TMBThanachart Bank (TTB.BK/TTB TB)* and Tisco Financial Group (TISCO.BK/TISCO TB)* are expected to post negative earnings growth due to sustained loan contraction and margin pressure. We continue to prefer Krungthai Bank (KTB.BK/KTB TB)*, which should face less credit cost pressure as its loan portfolio is focused on corporate, government, and payroll-linked consumer segments.