บทวิเคราะห์ (Research)

During 1H25, Thailand welcomed 16.69mn international tourists and generated approximately Bt743bn in tourism revenue. However, the overall picture showed a significant drop in the number of Chinese tourists since February 2025, resulting from safety concerns. Hence, we revise down our assumption on the number of tourist arrivals to 34.1mn (from 36.5mn) in 2025F and 35.5mn (from 38.0mn) in 2026F. Based on the new estimates, 1H25 tourist arrivals accounted for 48.9% of our full-year forecast. All-in, we believe the pace of recovery would be less than previously anticipated due to negative factors, i.e., earthquake, US trade war, economic slowdown. Nonetheless, we maintain a rating of Overweight for the sector. Minor International (MINT.BK/MINT TB)* is now our top pick with a mid-2026F target price of Bt33.50 (based on EV/EBITDA 9x or -1.0S.D.).