บทวิเคราะห์ (Research)

Yesterday share prices of Thai petrochemical firms jumped after South Korea announced a restructuring plan for its petrochemical industry. According to Korea Economic Daily, Ministry of Finance called for 10 petrochemical producers to sign MOUs to cut productions by 25% (2.7-3.7mtpa out of 14.7mtpa capacity). The goal is to stop the industry’s financial bleeding as margins have been distressed for the past five years. All 10 firms have to submit their reduction plan by the end of 2025. We believe olefin margin rebound will sustain at above-cash cost level in 2H25-2026, thanks to South Korea’s 3.7mtpa production cut to help offset the impact of China’s supply influx. We project share prices of PTTGC, SCC, IRPC, and IVL to rise further on their visibly better earnings outlook. Near-term PTTGC and IRPC emerge as winners on their distressed losses and potential turnarounds, but we think SCC will likely have the most benefits given SCC’s THB10b annual loss from LSP in Vietnam could turn into profits of THB5.0b by 2026. Thai petrochemical sector will now be the driver for SET to move to our target of 1300 by the end of 2025.