บทวิเคราะห์ (Research)

Strong earnings growth with attractive valuations We have a POSITIVE view on Thailand's aviation sector, driven by strong earnings growth (12% CAGR in FY24–26E), supported by rising passenger demand and stabilized costs. The sector also stands to benefit from the potential decline in jet fuel prices and excise tax cut. Sector valuation (excluding AOT) is attractive, trading at 12x P/E and 6x EV/EBITDA for FY25E. While this is close to Asian peers, we think the domestic focus of Thai airlines with limited competition and higher ROEs deserves a premium (Thai airline average ROE at 22% vs Asia 19%). Our Top Pick is AAV. Downside risks include: faster-than-expected resumption of capacity, a surge in oil prices, and weaker-than-expected THB against the USD.