บทวิเคราะห์ (Research)

On 2 January 2025, SET index plunged by 1.2% to hit the 200-day average line at 1,383 due to the falling share prices of Delta (-7.5%), GULF (-3.4%), and BGRIM (-1.5%) caused by the risk of earnings downsides from Global Minimum Tax (GMT) that has been recently approved by Thai cabinet to impose a minimum effective tax rate (ETR) of 15% on multinational corporations in Thailand and CPAXT (-3.7% ) on chronic concern on the perceived governance issue. The combined impacts are estimated to cause SET index drop by 1.4%, significantly underperforming other regional stock market indexes except China and Hongkong markets where investors’ concerns on China’s economic weakness continue from 2024 into 2025. Our preferred picks in January 2025 are IVL, GULF, MINT, WHA, and DELTA on their strong net profit outlook and superior growth and operational strategies. We think the “complacent” group of stocks whose growth strategies are unclear or inactive include banks (SCB, KBANK, KTB, BBL, TTB, BAY, TISCO), non-banks (KTC, MTC, SAWAD), insurance (TLI), commerce (CPN, CRC, COM7), food (OSP, TU), property (LH), and power (RATCH), will see their share prices mostly on side way in January 2025.