บทวิเคราะห์ (Research)

Neutral Maintained Banks’ 4Q24 and full-year earnings showed slow revenue growth, driven by decelerated NIIs due to reduced NIMs. Fee income growth remained in the low single-digits, heavily reliant on wealth management and capital market-related fees. Meanwhile, asset quality continued to depend on government policies allowing loan restructurings, which have helped banks save on credit costs. Downward revisions to GDP growth forecasts coupled with excessive CET1 ratios, have prompted banks to consider raising dividend payouts. Krungthai Bank (KTB.BK/KTB TB)* and Kasikornbank (KBANK.BK/KBANK TB)* are very likely to increase their payouts, as their CET1 ratios have grown 1-1.4% annually. Our sensitivity analysis indicates that for every 10% increase in dividend payout, CET1 ratios would decrease by only 0.2-0.25%, while ROE would improve by 0.15-0.18%. Based on this, we have fine-tuned KTB’s earnings estimates upward by 3% and re-rated its PBV to 0.8x, resulting in a new target price 2025 target price of Bt26.25, from Bt23.40. We upgrade KTB to Outperform, from Neutral.