บทวิเคราะห์ (Research)

The Thai stock market weakened unexpectedly in January 2025 due to trade war concerns driving higher risk premiums. However, valuation metrics (M-yield gap, equity risk premium, and CAPE ratio) indicate the market is undervalued. Our alternative indicators suggest limited downside: low Aggregate Short Interest reflects a wait-and-see stance among informed investors, while Investor Allocation to Equity is at a multi-year low. The new Average Skewness model signals potential medium-term recovery, though a selective buy the dip strategy is recommended given possible EPS forecast revisions to reflect the impact of a trade war. SET index support levels are 1,270 points and 1,255 points. The resistance levels are 1,310 – 1,340 points.