บทวิเคราะห์ (Research)

The SET index declined 4% in May, worse than expected, after our Momentum Turning Points (MTP) model signaled a potential Rebound but has now reversed to confirm Bear status. Multiple valuation metrics indicate Thai equities are attractively priced at crisis-comparable levels, with the Modified yield gap at +3.2 points, implied equity risk premium at 5.0%, and CAPE ratio at 14x—the cheapest since COVID-19. While trend followers should pause investments until clearer direction emerges, value investors are advised to buy on weakness, particularly blue-chip dividend stocks. Key June risk includes final US-Thailand trade negotiations before the July 8th tariff deadline. Technical support is at 1,120-1,100 points with resistance at 1,180-1,200 points