บทวิเคราะห์ (Research)

Dubai crude price edged up 1% WoW to US$69.4/bbl last Friday due to escalating tensions in the Middle East after Yemen’s Houthis attacked and sank two commercial ships (Magic Seas on July 6 and Eternity C on July 7-9) in the Red Sea, which they claimed were headed for Israel, marking the first such assaults of the year. For the refinery market, gasoline spread plunged 12% WoW to US$9.6/bbl. However, jet oil and diesel spreads inched up 1% WoW to US$15.9/bbl and 2% WoW to US$19.8/bbl, respectively, as the conflict between Israel and Iran raised the risk of supply disruption from the Middle East. Meanwhile, we forecast refinery margins for Thailand’s refineries to improve QoQ in 2Q25F thanks to better gasoline, jet oil, and diesel spreads. PTT Global Chemical (PTTGC.BK/PTTGC TB)* and Thai Oil (TOP.BK/TOP TB)* remain our Energy top picks thanks to i) low PB 0.4x (around -2.0 S.D.) and ii) stronger core earnings QoQ in 2Q25F.