บทวิเคราะห์ (Research)

Dubai crude price rose 5% WoW to US$72.2/bbl last Friday after President Donald Trump threatened Russia with tariffs and secondary sanctions on buyers of Russian crude if there is no progress towards a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by August 8. However, on Sunday, OPEC+ agreed to raise crude production by 547 KBD in September so the crude price plunged on Monday. For the refinery market, jet oil and diesel spreads declined 9% WoW to US$15.2/bbl and US$18.8/bbl, respectively, but both remained at healthy levels (above US$15/bbl), supported by global refinery closures of around 840 KBD in 2025F. Meanwhile, gasoline spread was nearly unchanged WoW at US$7.1/bbl. We forecast Thailand’s refinery margins to improve marginally QoQ in 3Q25F as the benefits from a higher jet oil spread of US$15.7/bbl (+10% QoQ) and a better diesel spread of US$19.5/bbl (+23% QoQ) QTD are largely offset by a lower gasoline spread of US$8.2/bbl (-28% QoQ). Thai Oil (TOP.BK/TOP TB)* and Star Petroleum Refining (SPRC.BK/SPRC TB)* remain our Energy top picks.