บทวิเคราะห์ (Research)

Thai 2Q25 GDP grew 2.8% YoY, slightly higher-than-expected, but the economic momentum should fade significantly in 2H25. Based on actual readings in 1H25 and our full-year GDP forecast at 1.9%, GDP could grow only 0.9% YoY in 2H25. Our view on the upcoming slowdown and fluid political situation in the weeks ahead has us remain cautious on consumer plays. Key dates for political cases are i) August 29, when the Constitutional Court would rule on the audio clip case between the PM and Cambodia’s leader, ii) September 9, when the Supreme Court is scheduled to rule on the case related to the health condition of ex-PM Thaksin Shinawatra. We recommend investors stay selective on themes like interest rate sensitive counters, sectors entering high season in 2H25 and selective names in contractor space that should benefit from the 2026 budget bill passing House approval