บทวิเคราะห์ (Research)

PTTEP expects sales volume CAGR of 3.4% in the next five years (2025F-2029F). The company also forecasts total sales volume to increase 3% YoY to 507 KBOED in 2025F, driven by the first full-year contribution from the Erawan project, which began commercial operations with production of 800 mmscfd on March 20, 2024. However, we cut our 2025F target price to Bt140.00, from Bt142.00, based on DCF methodology with WACC of 8.8% and terminal growth of 1.0% to reflect a larger five-year investment budget (CAPEX and OPEX) of US$33.6bn for 2025F-2029F, up 3% or US$1.0bn from the previous five-year investment plan for 2024F-2028F. Though Dubai crude price is anticipated to show a downtrend to US$75/bbl in 2025F and US$70/bbl in 2026F, we maintain a rating of Neutral thanks to an expected dividend yields of 8.1% in 2024F, 7.1% in 2025F, and 6.9% in 2026F, based on the current share price.