บทวิเคราะห์ (Research)

Downgrade to HOLD on CFP uncertainty; Prefer BCP We downgrade TOP to HOLD from BUY and cut our TP to THB28 as we factor in the delay and cost overrun of the clean fuel project (CFP) and apply a 20% discount to our DCF-based valuation. While TOP may look attractively valued on traditional metrics (P/E, P/BV, EV/EBITDA), we expect years of negative free cashflow (FCF) and see risks to dividends. We prefer BCP (BCP TB, CP THB35, BUY, TP THB62) for its exposure to gross refining margins (GRM).