บทวิเคราะห์ (Research)

KTB : Earnings Preview - Expect 4Q24F profit to increase y-y and decrease q-q We have a neutral outlook on 4Q24F net profit, estimated at 10,400 million baht. Profit increased by 70% y-y due to a decrease in credit loss provisions (ECL) from a large provision made in 4Q23 for a major debtor, likely ITD. While profit decreased by 6% q-q due to i) a 1% q-q decrease in net interest income (NII) from a decline in yield on loans. ii) a 6% q-q decrease in non-interest income from FVTPL investments. iii) a 2% q-q increase in operating expenses (OPEX) due to seasonal factors. Loans increased by 0.5% y-y and 1.0% q-q, or 0.5% YTD, driven by government loans. Asset quality is well-managed with NPL Ratio expected at 3.15%, close to 3Q24. Overall, we like KTB and maintain it as a top pick in the banking sector along with KBANK (BUY, TP 180 baht) because i) 2025F net profit is expected to grow strongly by 10% y-y. ii) We expect positive results from government spending, which is expected to accelerate in 1H25F. iii) There is a possibility of KTB increasing its payout ratio from the current level of around 30%.