บทวิเคราะห์ (Research)

A slightly negative outlook for 4Q24 presale at 6.7 billion baht (+25% y-y, flat q-q). Although it grew 25% y-y, this was mainly driven by the condo segment, which saw a significant increase in presale due to the launch of many new projects. Meanwhile, low-rise presale declined y-y, reflecting a slowdown in demand and pressure from high rejection rates. For 2024 presale equals 26.7 billion baht (-7% y-y), accounting for 74% of the 2024F target of 36.0 billion baht. Net profit trend for 4Q24F is expected to remain normal base, with an estimated 1.5-1.6 billion baht due to a large backlog awaiting transfer, but this is already within market expectations. However, we are concerned about the challenging outlook for 2025F as the backlog awaiting transfer is low. We maintain our 2024-25F net profit estimates at 5.82 billion baht (-3% y-y) and 6.15 billion baht (+6% y-y), respectively, and maintain our Trading Buy rating with a TP25F of 20.0 baht. SPALI's strengths lie in its consistent net profit, high dividend yield trend of 7.9%, which we view as a dividend play stock.