บทวิเคราะห์ (Research)

TOP’s share price has plunged over 50% from its recent high at THB55 due to the surprising announcement of capital increase of USD2.3b (+50%) to bring total capex to USD7.15b for its CFP upgrading project following the financial problem of its major EPC company with its subcontractrs. The delay of CFP Commercial Operating Date (COD) by 2 years further exacerbated CFP’s EIRR, causing investors’ grave concerns on TOP’s liquidity, profitability, and transparency positions. We project a 4Q24E NP of THB 2.4b, up from the NL of THB 2.2b in 3Q24 but down from THB 2.9b in 4Q23. The key drivers are: 1) a q-q increase in market GRM to USD 5.1/bbl, supported by stronger diesel and jet margins over crude oil prices, partially offset by a higher crude premium (+USD 0.3/bbl); 2) a stable refinery u-rate at 110%; 3) improved aromatics performance with a stronger PTX spread and a u-rate of 80%; 4) a higher LAB spread with a u-rate of 120%; 5) improved lube margins with a u-rate of 83%; 6) a THB 0.5b NP from subsidiaries; and 7) a NL of THB 0.5b from non-recurring items, includes a THB 1.9b stock loss, a THB 2.0b gain from NRV, a THB 50m net hedging gain, and a THB 0.6b FX loss. With a distressed valuation and proven competitiveness, we upgrade from HOLD to BUY at our TP of THB31.