บทวิเคราะห์ (Research)

GFPT : Earnings Preview - Net profit is expected to decline y-y, q-q in 4Q24F We maintain a "Buy" recommendation based on a low PER of just 7x, representing the lowest valuation in the meat sector. The current price stands at -2SD of the 5-year average PER. We project net profit for 1Q25F to increase q-q, driven by improving chicken/carcass prices and declining costs. However, we hold a "Negative" view on 4Q24F net profit, estimated at THB 355 mn (-13% y-y, -34% q-q). This projection stems from reduced chicken/carcass prices, lower export volumes, high-cost legacy inventory pressuring gross profit margins (GPM), and decreased profit shares from McKey and GFN. Consequently, our full-year 2024F net profit forecast is THB 1,946 mn (+41% y-y), approximately 3% below prior expectations. We've adjusted net profit estimates for 2024F-25F downward by 3%/5%, anticipating lower chicken export volumes in 2025F given the high comparative base. Our revised TP25F is THB 13.80, based on a -0.5 standard deviation PER of 10x.