บทวิเคราะห์ (Research)

CKP - Growth story intact despite cutting earnings Following an update with CKP, we maintain a positive outlook for the group despite challenges in 2024. We expect core earnings to grow by 25% yoy in 2025F driven by proactive measures to mitigate risks at XPCL. We expect 1Q25F to outperform historical trends, and seasonally-stronger ops in 3Q25F given Neutral weather conditions based on ENSO forecasts (lower risk of shutdown). But, we see two setbacks - planned overhauls at XPCL in 2Q25F and at NN2 (major) in 4Q25F. These prompted us to trim 2025-26F earnings by 10% and 11% respectively. That reduced TP to Bt3.80 (from Bt5.20) after trimming earnings and excluding valuation for LPCL (expect COD in 2030F). Maintain BUY rating as growth story is intact.