บทวิเคราะห์ (Research)

PTTEP’s 4Q24 net profit (NP) was THB18.3b (+2.4% q-q, +0.1% y-y), and core NP rose to THB18.0b (+7.5% q-q, -12.5% y-y), in line with Bloomberg consensus estimate and our forecast. Key factors were 1) lower sales volume at 500k boed (+5.3%q-q, +5.4%y-y) due to the absent maintenance shutdown for the projects in the gulf of Thailand, and the higher sales volume from Oman block 6&61; 2) lower cost per unit at USD29.32/boe vs USD31.91/bbl in 3Q24 on lower exploration, SG&A, and depreciation expenses; 3) a drop in ASP to USD45.83/boe due to the flat q-q gas price at USD5.9/mmbtu but lower liquid price to USD71.98/bbl (vs USD76.91/bbl in 3Q24); and 4) FX gain. We maintain HOLD and a TP of THB140, based on 2.5x 2025E EV/EBITDA. We have a cautious view on PTTEP's share price over the next 12 months, as volume growth slows and costs rise. Despite being Thailand’s top play on oil and gas prices, our bearish outlook on these prices and the lack of near-term catalysts support our cautious stance.