บทวิเคราะห์ (Research)

QH : Expect 1Q25F Presale to decrease y-y, q-q Slightly negative view on 1Q25F presale at 1.25 billion baht (-26% y-y, -12% q-q) decreasing y-y, q-q and below the company's target, especially in the low-rise segment, reflecting slowing demand and high reject rate. There were no new project launches this quarter. For 1Q25F presale, we expect it to account for 16% of the 2025F target of 7.8 billion baht (+10% y-y), though we anticipate downside risk and expect actual performance to be only close to the previous year's at 7.1 billion baht. For 1Q25F net profit, we expect a decrease y-y, q-q following transfers and % GPM that remain below normal levels, putting pressure on the 2025F net profit forecast of 2.4 billion baht (+12% y-y) with potential downside. We maintain our TP25F at 1.80 baht and Neutral rating. We are concerned about the continuous loss of market share over several years, making it difficult for profits to return to high growth. We do not see any changes in the business model from before, with only high expected dividends of 7-9% in 2025F supporting the stock price.