บทวิเคราะห์ (Research)

We forecast BCP to post a 1Q25F net profit of Bt2.1bn (-13% YoY, +12,751% QoQ). The decrease YoY would be due to anticipated lower market GRMs of i) US$5.5/bbl (-16% YoY) for the Phra Khanong refinery (BCP only) and ii) US$3.0/bbl (-39% YoY) for the Sriracha refinery (Bangchak Sriracha (BSRC.BK/BSRC TB)). The jump QoQ would come mainly from lower stock losses. We expect the Phra Khanong refinery to book a stock gain of Bt184mn (improving QoQ from a large stock loss of Bt1.0bn in 4Q24), while the Sriracha refinery should book a stock loss of Bt499mn (improving QoQ from a big stock loss of Bt1.2bn in 4Q24). However, we reduce our 2025F target price to 40.00, from Bt42.00, based on SoTP methodology, to reflect our earnings downgrades. We maintain a rating of Outperform on BCP thanks to i) anticipated better earnings QoQ in 1Q25F and ii) benefits from the planned acquisition of an 18.3% stake in BSRC from minority shareholders through a share swap of 1 newly issued BCP share for every 6.50 BSRC shares