บทวิเคราะห์ (Research)

We forecast PTG to report a 1Q25F net profit of Bt181mn (-30% YoY, -21% QoQ). The decrease YoY and QoQ would be mainly due to higher SG&A expenses of Bt3.6bn (+21% YoY, +8% QoQ), following expansion of PunThai Coffee to 1,476 stores in 1Q25 (+56% YoY, +10% QoQ), while the 221 new stores added in 4Q24 and the 129 stores opened in 1Q25 have not yet contributed at full capacity. In addition, PTG’s oil marketing margin is expected to soften slightly 1% QoQ to Bt1.63/liter. We maintain a rating of Neutral on PTG with an unchanged 2025F target price of Bt8.10, based on 11.5x PE. Despite the anticipated weaker earnings in 1Q25F, we forecast 2Q25F earnings to recover QoQ thanks to an upward trend in oil marketing margin to above Bt1.70/liter in April, supported by a lower crude price in the month.