บทวิเคราะห์ (Research)

D/G to HOLD following earnings cuts and higher capex We downgrade AWC to HOLD after cutting our TP to THB2.20 from THB4.20 to factor in the impact of slowdown in tourism to Thailand; We forecast flat RevPAR in FY25. We also factor in higher FY25-27E capex of THB15b pa (from THB10b) as AWC plans to have 8,358 rooms (+39%) within FY27. Management conceded there may be a slowdown in demand from the MICE market in 2Q-3Q25 (MICE hotels account for half of total hotel revenue). Strong operations in upcountry and costs controls may not be adequate to compensate for decline in MICE travellers and lower RevPAR in Bangkok. Thus, we cut our FY25-26E earnings by 29-31%. AWC is trading at a lofty 32x FY25E PE vs the Thai tourism sector of 22x. Key risks for AWC are overinvestment in non-operating assets and rising supply of hotels and offices.