บทวิเคราะห์ (Research)

PTT reported a 1Q25 net profit of Bt23.3bn (-20% YoY, +150% QoQ). The result was 7% below the Bloomberg consensus, but in line with our forecast. We maintain a rating of Neutral on PTT with a 2025F target price of Bt34.00, based on SoTP methodology. We believe the share price will be supported by i) the QoQ earnings growth in 1Q25, ii) anticipated interesting dividend yields of 6.8% in 2025F-2026F as of the current share price, and iii) Bt16.0bn share repurchase program of up to 470mn shares (1.65% of PTT’s total shares) during March 24 – September 23. However, we forecast earnings to decline QoQ in 2Q25F due to i) lower earnings contribution from PTT Exploration and Production (PTTEP.BK/PTTEP TB)* and ii) higher stock losses from PTT Global Chemical (PTTGC.BK/PTTGC TB)*, Thai Oil (TOP.BK/TOP TB), and IRPC (IRPC.BK/IRPC TB)*, after Dubai crude price plunged from US$72.5/bbl in March to below US$65/bbl in May.