บทวิเคราะห์ (Research)

Price as of 20 May 2025 18.50 12M target price (Bt/shr) 23.00 Unchanged/Revised up(down)(%) Unchanged Upside/downside (%) 24.3 Key messages We reiterate a rating of Outperform on PTTGC with a 2025F target price of Bt23.00, based on 7.5x EV/EBITDA. We forecast core earnings to recover QoQ in 2Q25F thanks to i) slightly higher ethane feedstock, ii) anticipated better refinery margin following wider jet oil and diesel spreads QTD, iii) stronger HDPE spread of US$384/ton QTD, up 21% QoQ, iv) significant recoveries in PX and BZ spreads last week, and v) smaller operating loss contribution from Vencorex. However, the company is expected to book a large stock loss in 2Q25F after Dubai crude price plunged from US$72.5/bbl in March to below US$65/bbl in May. In addition, PTTGC’s current PB ratio of 0.3x is below -2.0 S.D. (at 0.4x), suggesting the stock is already significantly undervalued.