บทวิเคราะห์ (Research)

(EN) M : Company update - Not a price war stage, just promotions We maintain our "Neutral" rating for M but cut the target price to 16 baht (from 20 baht) due to a 33-35% downward revision in 2025-26F net profit estimates. This reflects 1Q25 earnings missing expectations, weakening consumer spending, and intensifying competition. We expect 2Q25F earnings to remain weak with SSSG at -13% yoy, forecasting 2025F profit to drop -45% yoy before stabilizing in 2026-27F. While the company's ongoing promotions aim to boost traffic, we see this as a defensive move to preserve cash flow rather than drive growth, limiting upside potential. However, M remains attractive as a dividend play with strong financials, cash exceeding 40% of market cap, and 10% dividend yield after the 34% YTD stock decline. Risks appear largely priced in, but clear revenue recovery is needed for re-rating.