บทวิเคราะห์ (Research)

GPSC is set to report a strong 2Q25F net profit of Bt1.7bn (+20% YoY, +51% QoQ), driven by lower interest costs and JV gains, particularly from CFXD and XPCL. However, SPP/IPPs remain soft, and the upcoming expiration of Sriracha IPP’s PPA, seasonal weakness in 4Q25, and IU demand slump point to a weaker 2H25. We cut our 2025F–27F earnings forecasts by 1–3% to reflect a reduced stake in AEPL. We downgrade the counter to Neutral, from Outperform with a new target price of Bt33.50, from Bt35.50. While long-term upside exists via AEPL’s IPO, near-term catalysts are lacking, making it a good time to take profit.