บทวิเคราะห์ (Research)

We forecast BSRC to post a 2Q25F net loss of Bt2.0bn, worsening from net profits of Bt221mn in 2Q24 and Bt203mn in 1Q25. The poorer performance YoY and QoQ would come primarily from an anticipated stock loss of Bt2.1bn, worsening from a stock gain of Bt155mn in 2Q24 and a stock loss of Bt454mn in 1Q25. Meanwhile, we roll our target price over to 1H26F and upgrade it to Bt7.00, from Bt6.10, based on 6.0x EV/EBITDA to reflect our forecast of 205% YoY earnings growth in 2026F. We maintain a rating of Outperform thanks to anticipated HoH improvements for market GRM and oil marketing margin in 2H25F. In addition, we expect the company to benefit from Bangchak Corporation (BCP.BK/BCP TB)’s* planned tender offer to acquire an 18.3% stake in BSRC from minority shareholders through a share swap of 1 newly issued BCP share for every 6.50 BSRC shares.