บทวิเคราะห์ (Research)

Key messages We forecast PTT to post a 2Q25F net profit of Bt21.0bn (-41% YoY, -10% QoQ). The decline would come mainly from lower contribution from PTT Exploration and Production (PTTEP.BK/PTTEP TB)*, PTT Global Chemical (PTTGC.BK/PTTGC TB)*, IRPC Pcl. (IRPC.BK/IRPC TB)*, and PTT Oil and Retail Business (OR.BK/OR TB)*, given a lower Dubai crude price, higher stock losses, and weaker oil marketing margin. We roll our target price over to 1H26F and upgrade it to Bt35.00, from Bt34.00, based on SoTP methodology to reflect upward revisions to our target prices for PTTEP, PTTGC, Thai Oil (TOP.BK/TOP TB)*, and OR during July. Despite the expected weaker earnings in 2Q25F, we maintain a rating of Neutral on PTT thanks to anticipated attractive dividend yields of 6.5% in 2025F-2027F as of the current share price, and Bt16.0bn share repurchase program of up to 470mn shares (1.65% of PTT’s total shares) during March 24 – September 23.