บทวิเคราะห์ (Research)

IRPC reported a 2Q25 net loss of Bt2.1bn, worsening from net losses of Bt732mn in 2Q24 and Bt1.2bn in 1Q25. The result was in line with the Bloomberg consensus and our forecast. The poorer performance was caused mainly by a net stock loss of Bt2.2bn for the quarter, worsening from net stock gains of Bt1.2bn in 2Q24 and Bt518mn in 1Q25. We maintain a rating of Neutral on IRPC with a 1H26F target price of Bt0.95, based on PB 0.3x. Despite the bad performance in 2Q25, we forecast the company’s market GRM to improve QoQ in 3Q25F due to a wider jet oil spread of US$15.7/bbl (+10% QoQ) and higher diesel spread of US$19.5/bbl (+23% QoQ) QTD. However, we maintain our bearish view on the PP outlook owing to the huge influx of new PP supply, totaling 5.5 MTA in 2025F, 6.9 MTA in 2026F, and 5.7 MTA in 2027F.