บทวิเคราะห์ (Research)

SPRC reported a 2Q25 net loss of Bt812mnworsening from net profits of Bt346mn in 2Q24 and Bt714mn in 1Q25. The result missed the Bloomberg consensus by 16% and our forecast by 54% with a difference of around Bt280mn due to a weaker-than-expected market GRM of US$5.1/bbl (vs. our assumption of US$5.5/bbl). However, we reiterate a rating of Outperform on SPRC with a 1H26F target price of Bt7.00, based on 5.0x EV/EBITDA. We forecast SPRC’s earnings to rebound QoQ in 3Q25F thanks to i) absence of big stock loss seen in 2Q25 and ii) anticipated higher refinery margin HoH in 2H25F, driven by cumulative global refinery closures of around 840 KBD by the end of the year. The share price should also be supported by a good interim dividend of Bt0.15/shr, implying a dividend yield of 2.7% at the current share price, although the company recorded a cumulative net loss of Bt99mn in 1H25.