บทวิเคราะห์ (Research)

Earnings bottoming out and lower capex, U/G to BUY U/G to BUY following capex cut and better outlook We upgrade AWC to BUY from HOLD after raising our TP to THB2.90 from THB2.20 to factor in capex reduction to THB10b pa in FY26-27E (from THB15b) following delays in the opening of several hotels. AWC plans to have 10,475 rooms in FY29 (+53% from FY25). Management conceded there may be a slowdown in demand from the MICE market in 3Q25, but it’s seeing recovery for bookings for 4Q25 for upcountry, such as Samui, Chiang Mai and Pattaya. AWC is trading at a lofty 31x FY26E PE vs the Thai tourism sector average of 25x. However, we expect AWC to have the strongest earnings growth (+20% FY24-27E CAGR) in our coverage. Key risks are overinvestment in non-operating assets and rising supply of hotels and offices.