บทวิเคราะห์ (Research)

ORI : 3Q24 Presale decreased y-y, q-q We have a slightly negative view on 3Q24 presales of 8.5 billion baht (-32% y-y, -17% q-q) as it decreased y-y and q-q in both low-rise and condo, reflecting slowing demand in the middle to lower-middle market, as well as pressure from high rejection rates. These presale figures are gross presales, which do not yet include the impact of cancellations, expected to be 40-45%. For 9M24, presales totaled 26.8 billion baht (-27% y-y), accounting for 67% of the 2024F target of 40.0 billion baht (-15% y-y), which we expect has downside risk. We anticipate 3Q24F net profit will still decrease y-y, and net profit in 2H24F may not be as good as expected. The downside is likely to come from lower-than-expected transfers, so there's a chance that the 2024F net profit forecast of 2.25 billion baht (-17% y-y) could be further adjusted downward. We maintain our TP25F at 5.7 baht. Although we keep a Trading Buy recommendation, we see a lack of new positive catalysts in the short to medium term. Additionally, the postponement of the warehouse and hotel business spin-off plan to 2025-26F puts pressure on the financial position, tightening it and increasing liquidity risks. Therefore, we recommend a wait-and-see approach