บทวิเคราะห์ (Research)

We forecast TOP to post a 4Q25F net profit of Bt2.0bn (-28% YoY, -7% QoQ). The drop would come from i) an expected big hedging loss of Bt900mn, and ii) an anticipated large net stock loss of Bt2.9bn, dropping from net stock gains of Bt95mn in 4Q24 and Bt1.6bn in 3Q25. Meanwhile, we downgrade our rating on TOP to Neutral, from Outperform, with an unchanged 2026F target price of Bt41.00, based on 6.5x EV/EBITDA and 2.5% valuation discount related to ESG concerns, as the share price offers limited upside to our target price so we recommend locking in profits. In addition, we forecast TOP’s market GRM to soften QoQ in 1Q26F after Middle East refineries returned from turnarounds and ramped up output, while high seasonal winter demand for middle distillates gradually fades as winter comes to an end. We remove TOP from our Energy top picks.