บทวิเคราะห์ (Research)

We expect PTTGC to post a 4Q25F net loss of Bt7.9bn, improving from a net loss of Bt11.7bn in 4Q24 but deteriorating from a net loss of Bt2.9bn in 3Q25. The improvement YoY would be thanks to no extra provisions of Bt4.3bn from PTT Asahi Chemical and Vencorex like in 4Q24. The plunge QoQ would come from i) an anticipated higher stock loss of Bt1.3bn, worsening from a stock loss of Bt109mn in 3Q25 and ii) estimated net extra losses of Bt3.5bn for the quarter. We raise our 2026F target price to Bt28.00, from Bt23.50, based on a higher EV/EBITDA multiple of 8.0x, from 7.75x. We upgrade our rating to Outperform, from Neutral, to reflect an anticipated significant earnings turnaround in 2026F. We forecast a net profit of Bt4.6bn this year, recovering YoY from a huge net loss thanks to i) no refinery turnaround for 50 days like in 2025F, ii) higher ethane feedstock volume of 1.9mn tons (+7% YoY), iii) materially lower operating loss from Vencorex, iv) optimization & cost savings for all business, and v) extra gains of Bt2.3bn from two asset monetization.