บทวิเคราะห์ (Research)

SCB : Earnings Preview - Expected 4Q24F profit to decline both y-y and q-q Our neutral view on 4Q24F net profit. We expect 4Q24F net profit to be 9,500 million baht, declining by -14% y-y and -13% q-q due to 1) Decline in total loans: -0.6% q-q, representing -0.3% YTD from SME and retail loans 2) Decline in yield on loan: from 4Q23 and 3Q24, there was a one-time pre-payment from corporate customers. 3) Increase in expected credit loss (ECL): due to higher loan defaults, especially retail loans in the home segment. NPL Ratio is expected at 3.50% from 3Q24 at 3.38% Overall, we view SCB as maintaining a strong dividend, with the highest dividend yield in the banking group of approximately 8-9% per year. For 2H24F, we expect a dividend of 7.81 baht/share, with a dividend yield of approximately 7%.