บทวิเคราะห์ (Research)

We project PTTEP to report a flat 4Q24E net profit (NP) of THB 18.1b, (+1.6% q-q, -0.8% y-y). Key factors include: 1) a 6.9% q-q increase in sales volume to 510 kboed, driven by higher volumes from G2, Block 61, and PDO Block 6, partly offset by lower sales from G1 due to the maintenance; 2) a decline in the Average Selling Price (ASP) to USD 45.9/boe from USD 47.1/boe in 3Q24, due to lower liquid prices (USD 73/bbl vs. USD 81/bbl) and gas prices (USD 6/mmbtu); 3) a lower q-q cost per unit of USD 29/boe; and 4) a deferred tax loss of USD 20m and a stronger q-q share of pr7ofit from the Seagreen project. We maintain HOLD and a TP of THB140, based on 2.5x 2025E EV/EBITDA. We have a cautious view on PTTEP's share price over the next 12 months, as volume growth slows and costs rise. Despite being Thailand’s top play on oil and gas prices, our bearish outlook on these prices and the lack of near-term catalysts support our cautious stance.