บทวิเคราะห์ (Research)

SCGP is expected to report a 4Q24F net profit of Bt45mn (-96% YoY, -92% QoQ), its lowest earnings since IPO, due to full-quarter losses from Fajar, production halts at the fibrous unit, and mounting recycled paper losses. Despite SCGP’s optimistic 2025 guidance, structural challenges from oversupply and weak demand in China and Europe remain. We maintain our Underperform call with a revised target price of Bt16.70, from Bt25.00, reflecting lower EV/EBITDA and earnings cuts, as we see limited re-rating catalysts amid ongoing industry pressure.