บทวิเคราะห์ (Research)

We expect PTTGC to post a 4Q24F net loss of Bt11.0bn, declining from a net profit of Bt5.1bn in 4Q23 but recovering from a net loss of Bt19.3bn in 3Q24. The plunge YoY would be from i) absence of extra gains of Bt5.8bn from selling 50% stake in GC Logistics (GCL), US bond buy back, and completion of Thai Tank Terminal (TTT)’s fair value assessment like in 4Q23, and ii) anticipated provisions of approximately Bt4.0bn from Vencorex and PTT Asahi Chemical (PTTAC) in 4Q24F. The recovery QoQ would be from a smaller extra loss of Bt4.0bn for the quarter, improving from a huge impairment loss of Bt17.5bn in 3Q24. We cut our 2025F target price to Bt31.00, from Bt34.00, based on 7.5x EV/EBITDA to reflect earnings downgrades. However, we maintain a rating of Outperform thanks to an anticipated huge earnings recovery in 2025F, supported by i) no operating loss contribution of Bt5.0bn from Vencorex and PTTAC like in 2024F, ii) better market GRM of US$6.0/bbl (+28% YoY), and iii) larger ethane feedstock volume of 1.8-1.9mn tons, up 13%-20% YoY.