บทวิเคราะห์ (Research)

STA’s quarterly revenues and net profits had moved in a highly volatile trajectory in 2023-24, mainly due to the suboptimal utilization rates and the mismatching selling price (4-month lag) and costs (moving average). However, we think the volatility of STA’s profitability is soon ending in 2025, given its capacity expansion will reach its target capacity of 4.14mtpa in 2026E and demand growths will accelerate on EUDR and rising tire demands. We project STA’s net profit to rise from a loss of THB434m in 2023 to THB1.4b in 2024, THB2.5b in 2025E, and THB3.5b in 2026E, catalyzed by 1) higher sales volumes; 2) EUDR sales; and 3) US sales growth. We initiated coverage on STA with a BUY and a TP of THB18.7, based on 2025E P/E of 16x. We think STA’s valuation premium is justified by its 1) large market cap and high liquidity; 2) leading position as one of the world largest NR providers; 3) earnings upsides from EUDR and US import tariff; and 4) end of capex cycle to free up FCF.