บทวิเคราะห์ (Research)

KTB reported a 4Q24 net profit of Bt10.5bn (-7% QoQ, +71% YoY). The result was 5% above the market consensus and 24% above our forecast. The full-year net profit was Bt43.8bn (+20% YoY), driven by solid loan growth boosting NII and lower credit cost Loan growth was solid in 4Q24. Therefore, we have raised our loan growth assumption to 5% for 2025F and to 6% for 2026F (vs. near zero loan growth at 1% in our previous forecast) and lowered impairment expense to Bt6.0bn in 2025F and Bt5.0bn in 2026F (down from Bt7bn and Bt6bn), which lowers the C/I ratio to 38.5% in 2025F and 38% in 2026F (down from 39% and 38.5%). This may turn KTB into a dividend play. We maintain a Neutral rating with a 2025 target price of Bt23.40 (PBV 0.7x), from Bt21.00.