บทวิเคราะห์ (Research)

GPSC : Positive developments to mitigate negatives We are positive on GPSC’s earnings despite fears Ft would be reduced. The positives include (1) larger share of gas-linked contracts (72% now vs 65% in 2024); (2) contribution from Avaada/CFXD would rise from 15% of earnings in 2024 to 40% in 2025; (3) XPCL's earnings would rebound to ~Bt500m; and (4) minimal impact from Global Minimum Tax. We trimmed Ft assumption to Bt3.85 (from Bt4.18), which reduced FY25F profit by 7% and FY26F by 6%. But, we upgrade the counter to BUY (from Trading Buy) with a target price of Bt38.