บทวิเคราะห์ (Research)

We project a 4Q24E net loss (NL) of THB5.8b vs a NL of THB19.3b in 3Q24 and a net profit (NP) of THB5.1b in 4Q23. The key points are: 1) a q-q flat performance for refinery due to a q-q flat market GRM at USD3.5/bbl and the lower utilization rate on maintenance shutdown, partially offset by a higher gas oil spread; 2) a q-q weaker intermediate chemical performance, dragged by lower margins of HDPE-naphtha; 3) a q-q weaker polymers and chemicals due to lower price and spread; 4) a q-q lower NP from performance chemicals due to the poor margins and demands for Allnex; and 5) a NL of THB4.8b from non-recurring items, comprising THB3.0b Asahi provision, a THB1.0b Vencorex impairment, a THB0.2b stock gain and NRV, and a THB 1.0b FX loss. With a distressed valuation, we upgrade to HOLD from REDUCE at a TP of THB20, based on 5x 2025E EV/EBITDA. We think PTTGC’s net profit outlook remains mediocre at best ahead as the margins of olefins, aromatics, and gross refining margin, are all under pressures while its strategic growth roadmap is still questionable, in our view.