บทวิเคราะห์ (Research)

Last Friday, TOP clarified media reports regarding Samsung E&A's disclosure to the Korea Exchange, confirming the enforcement of security under the engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) contract for the Clean Fuel Project (CFP). TOP received the first claim of approximately Bt12.3bn (US$358mn) from the main contractor, representing 74.6% of the total performance bond guarantee at US$480mn. We have a positive view on this news and expect the claim to be recognized in 1Q25F. We revise up our 2025F target price to Bt35.50, from Bt30.00, based on 6.0x adjusted EV/EBITDA to reflect the first claim of US$358mn. In addition, we upgrade TOP’s rating to Outperform, from Neutral, as we see an upside potential of 31.5% to our new target price. However, investors should be cautious as uncertainty remains regarding who would replace the contractor if a new one is required. Additionally, there is ambiguity about whether the new contractor would provide guarantees for the work already completed by the previous contractor.