บทวิเคราะห์ (Research)

We estimate OR to post a 4Q24F net profit of Bt2.9bn (+1,398% YoY, recovering from a net loss of Bt1.6bn in 3Q24). The recovery YoY and QoQ would be driven by an anticipated oil marketing margin of Bt0.90/liter, up 21% YoY and 77% QoQ thanks to significantly better stock loss for the quarter. However, we cut our 2025F target price to Bt15.00, from Bt18.00, based on a lower PE of 16.0x, from 18.0x, to reflect i) earnings downgrades and ii) uncertainty from Ministry of Energy’s new law to regulate domestic oil price. Meanwhile, we maintain a rating of Outperform on OR thanks to the anticipated large earnings growth of 49% YoY in 2025F, given i) no impairment losses of around Bt800mn like in 2024F, ii) higher oil sales volume of 28,739mn liters (+9% YoY) partly from reclaiming market share, and iii) better oil marketing margin of Bt0.90/liter (+6% YoY).