บทวิเคราะห์ (Research)

GPSC faces a challenging outlook, with government-mandated tariff reductions outpacing the declining gas price. We expect a gradual tariff drop to Bt3.70/kWh by 2026F, while gas prices should fall less sharply. We have reduced our net profit forecasts by 8-19% for 2025F-27F, despite revising 2024F earnings up 12%. GPSC’s expansion strategy in India and gas-linked contracts will help alleviate the pressure on margin. 4Q24F earnings should come in better than expected, driven by stronger performances from XPCL and SPPs. We maintain a Neutral rating with a revised target price of Bt35.50, from Bt42.00.