บทวิเคราะห์ (Research)

We expect IRPC to post a 4Q24F net loss of Bt867mn, improving from net losses of Bt3.4bn in 4Q23 and Bt4.9bn in 3Q24. The improvement would come mainly from i) anticipated net stock loss of Bt608mn, recovering from net stock losses of Bt2.6bn in 4Q23 and Bt5.0bn in 3Q24 and ii) expected market GRM of US$4.4/bbl, up 56% YoY and 69% QoQ. However, we cut our 2025 target price to Bt1.10, from Bt1.45, based on a lower P/B multiple of 0.3x (implying -2.0 S.D.), down from 0.4x, to reflect our earnings downgrades and bearish view on the PP outlook this year. We maintain a rating of Underperform on IRPC due to concerns about the large new supply with PP capacity of 5.3 MTA and 5.5 MTA in 2024-2025F.