บทวิเคราะห์ (Research)

We project a 4Q24E net loss (NL) of THB1.4b vs a NL of THB4.9b in 3Q24 and a NL of THB3.4b in 4Q23, thanks to a stronger performance for refinery due to a q-q higher market gross integrated margin (GIM) at USD8-9/bbl (vs USD5.7/bbl in 3Q24) from the higher gas oil and asphalt spread. 4Q24E after-tax non-recurring loss of THB1.0b comprises 1) net loss from inventory and NRV of THB0.5b (vs -THB5.0b in 3Q24) and 2) FX loss from THB depreciation of THB0.5b. We expect IRPC to post a 2024E NL of THB 5.4b, up from THB 3.4b in 2023, mainly due to a lower GRM (USD 7.9/bbl in 2023), and weaker performance in the chemical segment due to market oversupply. We maintain HOLD and a TP of THB1.20, based on 8x 2025E EV/EBITDA, reflecting 0.4x P/BV. We think IRPC’s weak net profit outlook due to its high-cost structure and small specialty chemical portfolio would likely to continue to generate poor or operating losses for IRPC in 2025E-26E.