บทวิเคราะห์ (Research)

We forecast BSRC to post a 4Q24F net loss of Bt924mn, worsening from a net loss of Bt869mn in 4Q23 but improving from a net loss of Bt1.7bn in 3Q24. The decrease YoY would be from an anticipated stock loss of Bt1.3bn for the quarter, worsening slightly 4% YoY. The improvement QoQ would be mainly thanks to i) anticipated higher market GRM of US$4.7/bbl (+194% QoQ) and ii) better stock loss of Bt1.3bn, recovering from a large stock loss of Bt2.6bn in 3Q24. Meanwhile, we cut our 2025 target price to Bt8.00, from Bt10.00, based on 6.0x EV/EBITDA to reflect our earnings downgrades. The share price may be pressured by i) anticipated net loss in 4Q24F and ii) material lower gasoline spread of US$6.4/bbl in January 2025 (down 44% from US$11.4/bbl in 4Q24), as BSRC has Thailand’s highest gasoline yield at above 30%. However, we maintain a rating of Outperform as we forecast a large earnings recovery YoY in 2025F